Category: World Markets

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The rush to escape from the US Dollar as a reserve currency is on.

Additional nations are realigning the way that they use US Dollars in conducting their cash reserve management business. Nations that have announced or hinted at a shift in the percentage of foreign exchange holdings held in US Dollars include Russia, China, Japan, Iran, Malaysia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Vietnam. There are probably many more who are quietly making adjustments in the percentage of foreign exchange holdings held in depreciating US Dollars.

The recklessness of the Bush administration with its spend, spend, spend, and borrow, borrow, borrow policies, and the growth of the twin US deficits in the balance of payments and for the federal budget seem to be forcing a change in the way nations will manage foreign exchange reserves. They will be reluctant to continue to accumulate dollars. You can’t really blame nations when they are lucky to receive 5% on Dollar deposits and in recent years are losing 15% to 20% a year in Dollar depreciation.

The following article in The Daily Reckoning details the recent moves to diversify away from the Dollar by Vietnam and Qatar.

“Qatar and Vietnam aren’t exactly marquee players on the world financial stage. But if this is any indication, they’re harbingers of what’s to come for the U.S. dollar:

Announcements on Thursday from the Qatari and Vietnamese governments that they are rapidly divesting in dollar denominated securities will not come as good news to the US government. Overseas investors hold half of America’s $4,400bn of marketable government debt, up from a third in 2001 according to the US Treasury department.

Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr al-Thani said on US TV that the government-backed $50bn Qatari Investment Authority (QIA) now had less than 40 per cent of its investments in dollars, down from a high two years ago of 99 per cent.

Given that the Emirate’s oil and gas revenue is in dollars, the latest troubles in the US economy have accelerated the need to diversify investments into non-dollar markets. Currencies such as the Euro, the British Pound and the Swiss Frank, are all looking far more stable as investments for the QIA, said Sheikh Hamad.

Such was the Qatari PM’s concern about the sliding dollar, that he even said an oil price of $125 a barrel would not be unreasonable.

Ouch. Coming on the heels of Kuwait’s decision to decouple its currency from the dollar, and Saudi Arabia’s refusal to cut interest rates in tandem with the Fed last month the notion of the six Gulf Cooperation Council nations forming a single currency pegged to the dollar is looking not only improbable, but impossible.

And what about Vietnam? This too looks like an omen:

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