Archives: 2008 January

The long delayed American embassy fortress in Baghdad has been declared a fire risk by teams of safety inspection officials.

“This is serious enough to get someone killed,” said a State Department official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he feared retaliation. “The fire systems are the tip of the iceberg. That is the most visible. But no one has ever inspected the electrical system, the power plant and other parts of the embassy complex, which will house more than 1,000 people and is vulnerable to mortar attacks.”

The largest embassy in the world the American Embassy in Baghdad has long been troubled by poor planning, shoddy workmanship and design changes that have added to the cost. The Justice Department is reportedly conducting a criminal investigation of the contract and related subcontracts.

Originally expected to be completed by July 1, 2007, at a cost of $592 million, the largest U.S. diplomatic mission in the world has been plagued by troubles from start to finish. One problem is that it is not yet finished and fit for occupation. The cost has now escalated to an estimated $736 million with additional expenses sure to follow. Much of the construction is of such poor quality that a considerable amount of rework will have to be completed before the complex can be safety occupied.

Construction management has not been the only State Department problem with the Embassy. The State Department has had difficulty in getting State Department personnel to accept assignments to the embassy in Baghdad. Some career diplomat and support personnel have commented that being sent to Baghdad is like receiving a death sentence.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama win and Pollsters lose in New Hampshire primary.

The Clinton win and Obama with his close second place finish gave both candidates reason to be optimist about upcoming primaries at the end of the New Hampshire primary.

But what about all of those pollsters? They had best go back to the way they conduct their polls and try to figure out how all of them could be so wrong. The pollsters were the ones carrying the real losing position in New Hampshire.

Hillary Clinton’s narrow victory win in the New Hampshire Democratic primary was a definite much needed win after her second place finish in the Iowa caucus last week. Hillary and her army of Democratic establishment voters much have feel a tremendous rush of relief as the final votes were counted.

Barack Obama did so much better than he was expected to do just a few short weeks ago in Clinton country New Hampshire that he has good reason to be optimist about the primary path ahead. Obama finished in second place just two percentage points behind Clinton.

After all of the polls called Obama ahead the night before the primary, some by as much as nine percentage points, the election results must have truly stunned the pollsters. These guys are paid big bucks to come up with forecasts that are reasonably close and close to the actual result was not what they achieved in New Hampshire.

My own personal opinion is that the emphasis on polls do a disservice to the election process as they can influence election results. For example, if a candidate is deemed by the polls to be far ahead perhaps some voters who had planned to vote in a contest may decide to just stay at home rather than vote for a candidate that judging from the poll results they are sure will win with or without their vote.

Japanese alternative energy development is a serious subject in a heavily industrialized county that imports just about all of its energy requirements. Because it is such a serious matter for the Japanese they have given alternative energy more thought and research than most nations.

Japan is a densely populated country, and that makes the Japanese market more viable for alternative energy development compared with other markets. In Japan your energy distribution network doesn’t have to be very long in order to serve a significant market area.

The possibility of continued use of wind energy is enhanced if we go offshore. It is more expensive because the construction of foundations is expensive. But often the wind is stronger offshore, and that can offset the higher costs. We’re getting more and more return on our equipment. The price per kilowatt hour produced will be lower, due to the fact that the turbines are being used more efficiently.

In Japan there is increased interest in wind energy. If you compare it to other renewable energy sources, wind is by far the most competitive today. If we’re able to utilize sites close to the sea or at sea with good wind machines, then the price per kilowatt-hour is competitive against other sources of energy, so says Svend Sigaard, who happens to be president and CEO of the world’s largest wind turbine maker, Vestas wind systems out of Denmark.

Vestas is heavily involved with investments of capital, effort, and expertise into helping Japan expand its wind turbine power generating capacity. It is seeking to get offshore installations put into place in a nation that it says is ready for the fruits of investment into alternative energy research and development.

The Year From Hell roared in with a vengeance and attacks the stock market as one of its first orders of business.

The U.S. New York Stock Exchange kicked off the new year in record style. The Dow fell 220 points, the biggest first trading day of the year point drop in the history of the index and the worst opening percentage loss since 1983.

Then on Friday the Commerce Department releases the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) report and the AP reports soon afterwards that “The unemployment number jumped from 4.7 percent in November to 5 percent in December, the highest since November 2005 after the Gulf Coast hurricanes dealt the country a mighty blow. Payrolls – both private and government – grew by just 18,000 last month, the worst showing since August 2003, when the economy suffered job losses as it struggled to recover from the 2001 recession.”

The stock market was quick to respond. The DJIA lost another 256.54 points only to be outdone by the NASDAQ in percentage terms. The NASDAQ was down 98.03 points to 2504.65, a jaw dropping, bone jarring,  3.77%. For the first week of the year the Dow dropped 4.2% and NASDAQ was down by 6.4%. Happy New Year indeed investors.

I may have to go back to my drawing board and come up with another estimate of losses to be guesstimated for 2008. My earlier guesstimate of a 25% drop in the Dow may prove to be too conservative.

The perfect terrifying financial storm is brewing for the US economy and for the US stock markets. Wealth is being transferred from West to East. The falling dollar will make sure that this process continues as cheap American assets in weak dollar terms continue to be snapped up by foreign investors.

The Clinton Presidential express had a reality check in Iowa. After a third place finish in the Iowa caucus the Clinton camp that started the 2008 campaign with an air of inevitability attached to it was shocked into a state of disbelief.

A Clinton third place finish in folksy, down to earth, almost all white Iowa, does not bode well for the Clintonistas. It seems to be true that Clinton is a polarizing figure, and one who represents all of the business as usual corrupt practices that are rampant in Washington at that.

There is one thing very clear in the caucus message from Iowa. The people of America want and are ready for change. Americans are sick of the same old sick politicians wheeling and dealing their own way to fame and fortune while leaving the public good blowing in the wind.

Barack Obama ran on a campaign that featured hope and change as its focus. He turned his relative level of inexperience into an asset by pointing out to Iowans the mess that the “highly experienced” folks in Washington have made.

The people of Iowa should be proud that they are color blind. That a black man can do so well in their caucus shows have far Iowans and Americans have come in recent years in being able to evaluate and value a person based upon ability and character rather than on the color of skin.

The race to come is long and hard. No one can be sure of the outcome at this early stage of the campaign. However, the results of the Iowa caucus show be a warning to every old school politician. If you are not ready to change you had better get ready to retire.