When in Doubt Blame al-Qaeda in Pakistan

When in doubt about who ordered a suicide attack it is easy to blame al-Qaeda in Pakistan.

The Ms Bhutto killing was quickly blamed on al-Qaeda. Pakistan says it has intelligence that al-Qaeda assassinated opposition politician Benazir Bhutto at an election rally on Thursday. After Ms Bhutto’s death, interior ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema told reporters, there was “irrefutable evidence that al-Qaeda, its networks and cohorts were trying to destabilise Pakistan”.

That could well be and is even likely the case. Yet, that alone doesn’t prove that al-Qaeda did or did not order the assassination. Ms Bhutto had powerful enemies in Pakistan, including the President and the military. But of course that doesn’t prove that they were behind the assassination.

Since Ms Bhutto was widely viewed within Pakistan as being a bit too friendly with the Americans any of the fundamentalist groups, including al-Qaeda and Taliban elements, could have carried out the attack. There are a long list of those who opposed Ms Bhutto and the PPP.

One criticism that PPP members (Ms Bhutto’s political party) have leveled at the government is that government forces did not better protect Ms Bhutto. That may well be too but after all, Ms Bhutto had been warned by the government that complete protection would be next to impossible if she returned to Pakistan and exposed herself to crowds while campaigning. Ms Bhutto was no fool. I’m sure she was very aware of the risks to her life in volatile Pakistan.

The big question is what now? How will Benazir Bhutto’s death effect the troubled nation of Pakistan? Events could quickly spin out of control as anarchy, fundamentalism, revenge, and tribal leaders, all test the ability of the military and Mr. Musharraf to retain control.

Events in Pakistan will likely further erode the United State’s ability to maintain control in the region. The US had courted Ms Bhutto and had encouraged her to return to Pakistan in the hope that she and President Musharraf could work together to improve stability. Alas, now Ms Bhutto is dead and President Musharraf has been seriously weakened in his ability to keep the lid on extremists.

2008 will likely not be a pleasant one for Pakistan or for US interests in the region.

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