Archives: 2007 December

The drought in Turkey brings desert conditions to parts of Turkey. The drought also brought a great deal of finger pointing at officials who are accused of not taking steps to increase the water supply to Istanbul and the Turkish capital Ankara in time to avoid hardship.

While drought conditions have abated somewhat since last summer and steps have been taken to bring more water to the cities the long term forecast is not good. You can not pump in water that is not in the reservoirs.

Last summer was a frightening one for Turkey’s major cities. In the capital Ankara, water was not available for three consecutive days. It was announced by officials, “Later on we will have plenty of water.” Very helpful, eh? The University then issues a warning that “water remaining in pipes for three days will not be drinkable; otherwise, we will experience an epidemic outbreak.” The ministry of health set up a crisis center and waits anxiously.

The near complete lack of water in Turkey last year exposed just how quickly a city can be brought to its knees when water service stops. Not only is there the danger of epidemics and other health issues but an enraged population can be difficult and dangerous to cope with.

During the worse of last summer’s drought the best that government officials could seem to do was to turn to prayer. Prayer may help, hopefully it does, but it seems that prayer coupled with better planning and water conservation measures might have a better chance of succeeding.

Government officials all over the world in cities threatened by drought, like Sidney, Australia and Atlanta, Georgia, USA, should take note of Turkey’s plight. Prayer alone may not do the job. After all there is an old saying that God helps those who help themselves.

Vladimir Putin acts more like a new Russian Czar than a democratically elected president. However, there is a difference. Rather than attempt to change the Russian constitution and rule for life Putin is stepping down next year while at the height of his popularity in Russia.

Vladimir Putin and his success at the revitalization of Russia have been noticed. Time magazine just announced that Putin has been selected to be their 2007 Man of the Year. Most Russians would agree with that choice. The practical tough mined Putin has reigned over a Russia that has moved closer to center stage on the world stage than Russia has enjoyed for quite some time.

Russia is a nation rich in natural resources like oil, gas, timber and precious metals. Surging prices for natural resources have been in Putin’s favor. Under Putin, Russia has gone from a broke nation with over 200 billion in foreign exchange debt to a prosperous nation with hundreds of billions in foreign exchange reserves. While luck and Putin’s timing in taking office may have had something to do with this Putin still gets high marks for his forceful, no nonsense leadership.

Western nations, especially the US, have chided the Russian government and Putin for backsliding on democratic principals in favor of authoritarian rule. However, most Russians are happy with Putin and the results that he has achieved. His approval rating is about at 70% after seven years of rule. Compare that with George Bush’s approval rating in the 20’s and you may begin to wonder what’s so wonderful about democracy, George W. Bush style?

The fact is that most people respond to security, prosperity, and a sense of advancement than to the type of political system that delivers the goods. I’m confident that the style of democracy that Bush brings to the table would not be the system of choice in Russia or anywhere else.

When in doubt about who ordered a suicide attack it is easy to blame al-Qaeda in Pakistan.

The Ms Bhutto killing was quickly blamed on al-Qaeda. Pakistan says it has intelligence that al-Qaeda assassinated opposition politician Benazir Bhutto at an election rally on Thursday. After Ms Bhutto’s death, interior ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema told reporters, there was “irrefutable evidence that al-Qaeda, its networks and cohorts were trying to destabilise Pakistan”.

That could well be and is even likely the case. Yet, that alone doesn’t prove that al-Qaeda did or did not order the assassination. Ms Bhutto had powerful enemies in Pakistan, including the President and the military. But of course that doesn’t prove that they were behind the assassination.

Since Ms Bhutto was widely viewed within Pakistan as being a bit too friendly with the Americans any of the fundamentalist groups, including al-Qaeda and Taliban elements, could have carried out the attack. There are a long list of those who opposed Ms Bhutto and the PPP.

One criticism that PPP members (Ms Bhutto’s political party) have leveled at the government is that government forces did not better protect Ms Bhutto. That may well be too but after all, Ms Bhutto had been warned by the government that complete protection would be next to impossible if she returned to Pakistan and exposed herself to crowds while campaigning. Ms Bhutto was no fool. I’m sure she was very aware of the risks to her life in volatile Pakistan.

The big question is what now? How will Benazir Bhutto’s death effect the troubled nation of Pakistan? Events could quickly spin out of control as anarchy, fundamentalism, revenge, and tribal leaders, all test the ability of the military and Mr. Musharraf to retain control.

Who killed Benazir Bhutto is a question that will probably never be truly answered. Of course, in time the identity of the shooter and suicide bomber will likely be revealed. But which one of the many possible forces behind the attack will likely never be truly known. Benazir had many admirers in Pakistan as well as many enemies.

Pakistani former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in a suicide attack just after addressing an election rally in Rawalpindi. She was shot in the neck by a gunman who then set off a bomb.

“The attack shows that there are still those in Pakistan trying to undermine reconciliation and democratic development in Pakistan,” a US State Department official said. Yeah. No kidding. I truly hope that the US State Department understands at least that much about the country.

That Bhutto was assassinated in violence and turmoil prone Pakistan should come as no surprise. It was the second suicide attack against her since her return to Pakistan only a few months ago and came amid a wave of bombings targeting security and government officials.

Ms Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), had twice been the country’s prime minister and had been campaigning ahead of general elections set for January. There is now considerable doubt if the elections will move forward as planned.

Whatever you may think of Benazir Bhutto she did not lack in intelligence and bravery. Surely Ms. Bhutto knew that the risk of being assassinated during her reelection campaign was considerable. Yet she pressed on with her appearances. No doubt in that part of the world she will become an immediate martyr. That probably means her supporters and admirers will be seeking revenge.

Get ready for a global banking system crisis in 2008. The central bankers of the world are busy even through this holiday period injecting tremendous amounts of cash into the banking system in an effort to prop the heavily interrelated worldwide banking system up.

But how do you correct problems caused by the over extension of credit by injecting even more credit into the system? The short answer? You do not. The problem will be even more difficult to deal with in the near future.

Americans are already overextended to the breaking point. The rate of credit card default is surging as fallout from the subprime meltdown is spreading. “Debt eventually leaks into other areas, whether it starts with the mortgage and goes to the credit card or vice versa,” said Cliff Tan, a visiting scholar at Stanford University and an expert on credit risk. “We’re starting to see leaks now.”

“The worst is yet to come for the global banking system, which faces potential losses of more than half-trillion dollars from investments in toxic sub-prime US mortgage debt. “The problems in the financial sector remain with us,” said Bank of England chief Mervyn King on Nov 19th. “A painful adjustment faces the global banking sector over the next few months as losses are revealed and new capital is raised to repair bank balance sheets,” he said.

“To defuse the crisis, the Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are pumping enormous sums of money into the banking system, at below market interest rates, to prevent a “credit crunch” from triggering a global stock market meltdown. “Central banks are working together to forestall any sharp tightening in credit conditions that might lead to a downturn around the world,” King declared.