2008 US Presidential Money Race
William Mayer, a political science professor at Northeastern University and a leading expert on presidential campaigns, has an interesting campaign law. Mayers makes the case for “Parkinson’s Law of Campaigns,” which he defines as “If you have money, you will spend it, whether it helps or not.”
First quarter initial fund raising results for monies raised by the large field of 2008 Presidential candidates are scheduled to be released later this week. Political reporters are at the ready, poised to sprint to their keyboards to type in the anticipated massive sums of what is expected to be a record Presidential campaign money raising quarter.
Which candidates look to be the early fund raising champions and therefore the way American politics work early leaders in the world’s grandest and longest political prize race?
It looks like Barack Obama is still counting his presumably massive first-quarter receipts. Obama is gaining the support and contributions of young folks who are participating in the 2008 election effort as never before. Obama seems to be the fresh face that many who are disenchanted with Washington politics as usual are looking for.
Everyone knows that Hilliary Clinton has raised record amounts of funds to add to her already impressive war chest. The Chicago Tribune has already run a headline: “Hillary Clinton raises historic campaign money.” Hillary and her money continue to be the safe bet to seize the Democratic nomination.
There are other candidates who are expected to report large contributions. John Edwards is expected to tally at least $14 million, not bad for the former Vice President candidate. This should carry him further down the Presidential golden road.
Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani are doing well. Romney is doing very well in fact with an estimated $23 million added to his campaign funds. Giuliani is not too unhappy with an estimated $14 million in contributions for the quarter.
John McCain, once considered the Republican favorite may be suffering from his support of the Bush highly unpopular Iraq war troop surge. His expected $12.5 million, while sizable, is not what you would expect from a front runner. McCain seems to be fading fast.
Fortunately, as important as money is to running a successful Presidential campaign it is not everything. Parkinson’s Law of Campaigns means that large sums of money may be spend very unwisely by major candidates. The real beneficiaries, no matter what, in the current big buck environment of Presidential campaigns, are the media companies and advertising agencies. They tend to suck up all the money that is thrown at them, and then some, quick as a flash.
In a crowded field there is a useful purpose to the money race. The candidates that can not raise the vast amounts of money required to run a national campaign will quickly retire from the field of battle.
The reduction of the field of Presidential hopefuls somewhat simplifies things for the voters, focuses attention on the surviving candidates, and narrows the issues that are deemed to be important enough for the candidates to promote in an effort to spend all of those millions in contributions.
An American Presidential campaign is the grandest show in politics anywhere. As with a lot of things in America money may not be everything, but if you have money your chances of achieving your goals are vastly improved.
