War with Iran by Miscalculation
The ongoing incident involving 15 Royal British Sailors and Marines indicate how tense conditions in the Gulf region are becoming.
The British military personnel are from the HMS Cornwall, based in Plymouth, UK – the flagship of the coalition-Iraqi forces which patrol Iraqi territorial waters in the northern Gulf to combat smuggling.
The British claim that their forces were in Iraqi waters went they were sized at gun point by Iranian Naval forces. The Iranians state in no uncertain terms that the British military forces had aggressively intruded into Iranian territorial waters.
Either way the incident shows that with the continuing disagreement between Iran and the US and the majority of the world community, including Britain, over the purpose of Iran’s nuclear program there is a danger of a confrontation that could be sparked by even a relatively small incident.
To further increase the pressure on Iran to shut down it’s nuclear enrichment program the UN Security Council has just unanimously voted in favor of new sanctions against Iran. Iran remains steadfast in it’s statements that they will not cave in to international pressure and will continue with their nuclear enrichment program.
Recently, as tensions increase, the United States dispatched a second aircraft carrier battle group into the Gulf region further increasing the tensions. The warships of the US Navy, the British Royal Navy, and the Iranian Naval forces are all operating within a relatively small area.
In addition, Iran without a doubt, has a heavy concentration of anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile batteries deployed along their shoreline fronting the Gulf. Iran has a highly strategic shoreline fronting on the Straits of Hormuz through which 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. Iran reportedly has contingency plans to attempt to close the Straits should they be attacked in any manner by those who want to shut down their nuclear program.
All the elements are in place for a miscalculation by the Iranian or US and British forces that could spark a war with Iran. Tensions are high and there are an abundance of military forces within close proximity. Add in statements by the Israelis who have said very clearly that they will not stand by and let Iran develop nuclear weapons, as has US President George W. Bush, and you indeed have a dangerous mixture of elements that could lead to conflict.
With tensions high a minor incident, even as minor as the detainment of the 15 British military personnel, could cause a miscalculation by either side that could quickly escalate into a confrontation that neither side truly wants.
It has happened before.
World War One was started by the assassination of a fairly unimportant political figure. The stage for confrontation had been set by a large build up of military forces in Europe. All it took to set off one of the greatest tragedies the world has even known was a series of miscalculations following the incident.
With George Bush still in the White House, with Tony Blair the Prime Minister of Great Britain for at least a few more months, and with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the President of Iran, let’s hope that the current incidence is quickly settled before it escalates. Let’s also hope that these three “leaders” act more sensibly than their behavior over the past few years would indicate might be the case should another perhaps more serious incident occur.
These three men have already proven that they are quite capable of making gross and tragic miscalculations.
